O/U 2011: With a new look will we see new stats

FINALLY it’s preseason preview time here at AppFan. We’re calling it Over/Under 2011. Every few days we’ll throw out our best guess estimate of a future stat, and you tell us why we’re wrong.

Coleman nightmareTomorrow is the big Fan Fest scrimmage. And, as scheduled, we’re ready for our annual confliction.

But this year we may not be so conflicted. While everyone is hyped to see some DP-Quick goodness on the O, there will be plenty of attention given to the new look D.

3-4 is the new scheme. And, according to coach Moore, it fits like an Under Armour glove.

Moore said that the change to three down linemen and four linebackers fits his team’s personnel, with enough size up front and a multitude of linebacker candidates.

“We haven’t always had the depth that we have right now, but we’ve always had pretty good linebackers that can run,” Moore said. “Then you take a Lanston Tanyi for instance (who has moved from defensive end to outside linebacker), he can play defensive end, but he can run like a linebacker.”

“We think we’re as good up front as we’ve ever been,” Jones said. “We have depth there.”

The WSJ article drops some names, including freshman Ronald Blair, who “has moved in front of redshirt freshman Will Corbin (6-6, 300) at weak-side defensive end in the three-man front.”

The numbers sound good too. 6-4, 260. 6-1, 305. 6-6, 250. 6-5, 235. Looks like size and speed.

Over/Under – Yards allowed by the App State defense: 330.

The low-water mark for the defense the past four seasons is 318, which came during the 2009 year when the D looked lost early. (Remember McNeese State?)

The most porous season was 2007, when 380 yards were allowed per game. And still App State won a title.

Yet the past few seasons have seen much griping about the stopping of the ball, or lack there of. It’s been awhile since App has pitched a shutout. And though the D often doesn’t break but just bend, there’s been a lot of bending. Uh-lot.

Maybe the new assignments and new schemes will instill some new urgency. Or in the least confuse some league foes.

For that reason we’ll go under. We think the defense is hungry for some love.

Looking at the schedule, Va Tech will be formidable regardless of how the 11-man equation is stacked. But the following two weeks feature smaller, less heralded offenses before the point-happy Mocs come to town (31.5 pts a game last year)

11 comments to O/U 2011: With a new look will we see new stats

  • AppWyo

    When was the last shut out? Georgia Southern in '87 was my favorite 19=0.

  • Yosef1969

    The last shutout was September 16th 2006, 41-0 vs Mars Hill.

    The last shutout against a D I was November 4th 2000, 52-0 vs VMI.

    There have only been 7 total shutouts in the Jerry Moore era and 3 came against VMI. Not that it matters but ASU had 6 shutouts in 5 years under Sparky Woods.

  • Keith

    Really can't compare Woods to Moore in the shutout category. In our blowout games Moore plays anyone with a jersey in the second half (which I agree with). For all purposes we let Lenoir Rhyne score in 2007. Coach Moore does not like to embarrass other teams or coaches.

    I would say 330 is about the right number. For the reasons mentioned above, weak schools end up with decent offensive numbers in blowouts against us.

  • ceez

    A D2 team on the schedule is an embarrassment.

  • dapp

    stats sometimes lead you the wrong way the 2005 – 2009 stats had many blowouts and when you run a spread offense that strikes in less than two clock minutes often in one to six plays your d spends alot of time on the field. we havent found a home run hitter ala murrell and hunter to make a sack or lynch to pull us out of drives but if you read this blog you would have thought we were wcu the last few years and not the number one fbs team in rhe rankings during the season. tanyi could be the boost we need also rizor has shown why they were so excited to see him.sooner or later if we make another run we are going to need fresher legs on defense to stop the run this has cost the team dearly in recent play off games a 3-4 run stopping d has to have a plug in the middle i hope we have one. sometimes in the past we have gotton tired legs on d against conf. foes gsu and wofford and have paid the price, but i can see how asu only using a three dl rotation may add depth to a position very hard to recruit and find a way to get our lbs on the field to make plays. by the way how many tackles would dexter made in a 34 scheme?and hackett. quit worring about it i say and lets go apps

  • AppBanker

    What D2 school do we have on the schedule? Both NC A&T and Savannah State are members of the MEAC, a FCS conference.

  • mockenburd

    Someone posted last week that App has given up a TD the first play of the first game of the season for the past 3 or 4 years. Let's try and break the streak this year, D. Go neers!

  • ceez

    AppBanker

    If you read the two post prior to mine, you will see the names Mars Hill and Lenoir Rhyne. Two teams that were on the schedule in 2006 and 2007; both D2. I am not referring to this years schedule against two teams that had a combined two victories last season, and their losses were complete blow outs to other pathetic MEAC teams. No, I am aware they are are FCS.

  • bcoach

    I go under. I think the 3-4 will be good for us as we have a stable of LBs with reasonable speed.